The Spanish Government expects growth of 6.5% in 2021 and 7% in 2022
The Spanish Government’s forecast, according to the information available at this time, is that the Spanish economy will grow 6.5% in 2021, while in 2022 growth will reach 7%.
In this way, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would reach around the end of 2022 the level that it registered in the fourth quarter of 2019, the one before the outbreak of the pandemic.
In 2023, the expected growth would be 3.5% and already in 2024 the forecast slightly exceeds 2%, approaching the potential growth of the economy, which rises in the medium-long term compared to the current situation thanks to the effect of investments and reforms of the Recovery Plan .
Four key factors
As the Government has pointed out in recent months, the evolution of the economy will be marked by four factors: the vaccination process; the evolution of the foreign sector; support for the productive fabric to avoid a structural impact of the pandemic on the economy and employment; and the deployment of the Recovery Plan.
In the first place, the prospects for the vaccination process draw a positive scenario, with a prudent forecast that would allow 70% of the population over 16 years of age to be vaccinated in the summer.
Second, the evolution of the foreign sector has had a less favorable impact at the start of the year due to the impact of the pandemic in the large European countries, which suggests that growth in the Eurozone this year is lower than that estimated in October. On the contrary, world growth expectations are improving due to the impulse of the stimulus plans, the advances in vaccination in different countries and the better performance of export markets.
Third, the support measures for the productive fabric and employment already in place reduce the risk of a structural impact on the economy and that the solvency problems of some companies are transferred to the financial sector.
And, fourthly, the Recovery Plan makes it possible to undertake additional investments to transform the Spanish economy, a key differential factor with respect to previous crises, in which public investment was hampered by the less fiscal space available.